2022- If Quarantine Restraints Continue?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by MTR, 1st Jul, 2021.

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  1. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    This is not good
     
  2. Mulianto

    Mulianto ~~

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    Yeah… and especially some of the Asian groceries in the city. I wonder how long can they hold on to those 20-40k rental a month rental with earning less than 10k due to much lesser international students.

    And not to mention the high rise developers holding costs with most stocks unsold, buyers defaulted.

    Those are the ones I know of.
     
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  3. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Do we have international students with closed borders????
     
  4. Mulianto

    Mulianto ~~

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    Yeah some mid degree, they have stayed on during covid. But less than 30% from normal amount of them I think
     
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  5. Ronen

    Ronen Well-Known Member

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    I'd guess the landlords will reduce rent.
    If their tenants closing down, it'll mean zero rent vs some rent.
    It's not that empty shops within the CBD are gonna be rented now.
     
  6. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Problem is even if they reduce rent. There is no traffic coming through, over heads will kill the business regardless
     
  7. Ronen

    Ronen Well-Known Member

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    For businesses that lost 100% of their income there's no much to do.
    Not much that anyone can do for those niche businesses that are build upon a very specific market. It's a risk they took when opening up.
    I think everyone who starts a business should do risk analysis to be able to adapt and change if their market changes.

    No one can predict global pandemic, but such a business as you described (Asian speciality store in the CBD) could have major hits even without COVID.
     
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  8. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    printing money……

    Not sure how Melb/Syd business’ going to cope with this
     
  9. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    I have no idea either but my gut tells me most businesses will bounce back.
     
  10. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    I think the latest outbreaks/lockdowns/issues are telling me that unless things change in Aust, hospitality businesses such as cafes will need to either run extremely lean (carry at most a day's worth of perishables) or become part of a much larger organisation that has the logistics backing and other business that keeps going in a lockdown (eg independent cafes may become a thing of the past - they might be all owned and operated by Coles-worths)

    Road freight is now becoming the other issue - eg do we need to have state border customs/transfer stations? Do we go back to shipping? (literally)

    Interesting times ahead.

    The Y-man
     
  11. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Gosh I hope so…… last time in Melb lots of empty commercial premises
     
  12. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    Industrial is going nuts. Low vacancies - wife's work is looking to expand warehouse (currently at 1,000sqm, looking to double) - impossible to even find a place, let alone at a decent rent....

    The Y-man
     
  13. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    This is property?
    Yes, industrial is going nuts. Been buying into industrial REITs and property values have soared oz wide
     
  14. Indifference

    Indifference Well-Known Member

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    Now that the States/Territories have a taste for their new found “authoritah” over the masses, history would support they will now have a strong reluctance to cede that “authoritah” any time soon…. Business may bounce back, borders may open, international travel may re-establish itself but with what residual constraints carried forward from this power drunk era?
     
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  15. Tony3008

    Tony3008 Well-Known Member

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    At the risk of sounding unsympathetic they've had a year and more to adjust to an era when a lockdown could be called within days so perhaps not a day's worth of food but perhaps a few days at most. At the start of the last lockdown the Age carried a story in which a cafe owner claimed he was having to discard $60K worth of perishable food. Assume that this was a week's supply and takings are 3x food cost (a common rule of thumb), that would imply takings of around $9m. I never realised small cafes were so profitable.
     
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  16. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Its a bit pie in the sky to assume $9M takings???

    You have no idea what their over heads are, including rents, staff, loans etc

    My worst nightmare would be trying to survive these ongoing lockdowns as a business owner. These are the forgotten people.

    Business owners are calling for an alternative than zero covid strategy

    ‘Back to square one’ for restaurateurs as lockdown 5.0 bites
     
    Last edited: 19th Jul, 2021
  17. DoingOK

    DoingOK Well-Known Member

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    UK yesterday said 40% of people in hospital were fully vaccinated. That is not good when going fully open. I know being vacinated means less problems but that is a big number. I was surprised it was that high. No wonder so many have decided to keep using masks even after they don't need to by the new rules. I hope this does not go pear shaped. I still can't get my head around 40000 cases a day. I know we are a small population in a big area but we could not test that many people a day for long and how many tests are done to find 40000 positive ones.
     
  18. bumskins

    bumskins Well-Known Member

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    Seen some Israel data and doesn't seem Vaccination reduces chance of infection.
    Meaning the vaccinated will be spreaders

    Not sure about hospitalisations/outcomes.

    Biggest issue is if not constrained Delta will overload hospital's/ICU capacity. If that's overloaded you will have poor outcomes.
     
  19. maroon

    maroon Well-Known Member

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    That is a misleading number.
    The vaccine isn't perfect. If 100% of the population were vaccinated and 10 people out of a population of 10 million ended up in hospital with Covid, then 100% of people in hospital are fully vaccinated.

    Daily infection numbers in the UK are close to their January peak. Hospitalisation numbers are nearly a tenth of their January peak.

    Screenshot_20210722-165919_Facebook.jpg
     
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  20. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: 22nd Jul, 2021
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