2017 Predictions - crystal (meth)-balling

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by Scott No Mates, 15th Dec, 2016.

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  1. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    mmm...last Syd correction was - 2003 and boom started in 2013, 10 year gap, bust cycles much longer than boom cycles.... who knows next time, but if you research past booms generally 7 year gap
     
  2. bob shovel

    bob shovel Well-Known Member

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    sydney is going bananas!! absorbed a lot of the unemployed'able WA'ians ;) and once more of the $$ are locked in they can start spending on other infrastruture - water etc solid 5 years of work ahead already
     
  3. igor1234

    igor1234 Well-Known Member

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    i wouldn't put much predictions into 2017 - too many unclear factors. government was tight on immigration and foreign purchases - if this changes, all appartments will increase again. if the US keep increasing interests like madmax we will evetually follow suite (though doesnt make sense to me since they are lower than Oz for 2-3% and had those low rates for quite a few years) and the property prices go down. if donald duck decides to go to war - thats then will push property higher since shares/markets will plunge and people will want safe investment.
    fence seems good spot right now :)
     
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  4. bumskins

    bumskins Well-Known Member

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    I'd say those projects aren't as ubiquitous as they seem, some will have questionable benefit and all are still largely years off.

    They may offer some relief in 5 years when they are finished but in the meantime >500,000 more people will be added to Sydney. Lets face it most of these projects are just playing catch up.

    At our high growth rates I think non-grade seperated Light Rail projects will be shown to be bogus a mere few years after they open. Instead that capital should be reserved for Heavy Rail/Metro. Electric buses would have been a better go between even.

    Badgery's Creek will be a long way off still and I question how much impact it will give for the immense cost.

    We are adding a lot of people to Sydney and Melbourne and at the moment the job market seems to be absorbing them, but there are some cracks showing.

    I think we should prioritise interstate migration and make sure those unemployed are finding employment before flooding the country with a lot of immigrant workers that if we fall on tough economic times are only going to exacerbate the unemployment situation.

    Running such high rates of growth also mean we are going to have to start building a lot more childcare centres, schools, hospitals etc. just to deal with these peaks.
     
  5. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    @bumskins, there's not one single long term project in your post - it is noted that the population of Australia is growing and that governments have to do something to handle this both on the job creation front but also to build infrastructure to cope with both existing and future growth.

    Transport systems in NSW have not been substantially modified since their inception in the 1900's though roads have been built to handle the ever-increasing shortfall between public transport capacity and the need to get to jobs. Jobs relating to construction, though of project duration, lead to ongoing employment opportunities in the operation and maintenance of these facilities.

    Successive state labor governments failed to implement any strategies to provide for growth, capacity building etc other than to make announcements without providing funding.

    Electric buses simply add to road congestion (though they carry more passengers than single occupant cars) as they occupy the same roadway, metros operate on separate rail lines with capacity based on the frequency of services.

    Interstate migration is a useful tool but without jobs in other states will only lead to higher unemployment - Tasmania, NT, SA and to some extent WA do not have the jobs to drive employment, industry has been driven out, mining booms come and go. There needs to be a greater focus on agribusiness including aquaculture but these only provide minimal opportunities but for specific skill sets. Jobs have to be in the value-add categories, not just in the primary industry stakes.

    The jobs should also be where the houses are even if major projects are expensive or have a long procurement programme: The lattè line - smh.com
     
    Last edited: 17th Dec, 2016
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  6. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    With two electricity blackouts already this last 3 months, the most expensive electricity in Australia which is forcing businesses to contract and/or close up because they can't afford the cost (leading to higher unemployment), and more plans to expand their renewable energy % in coming years (and now their back-up of Vic's Hazelwood plant closing)..Adelaide won't do much; if anything.

    The windfarms will look good though.
     
  7. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    Fair suck of the sav; more of this "Trump warmonger" rubbish?? :rolleyes:

    They've already had the last 8 years - and longer - of "going to war".
     
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  8. bumskins

    bumskins Well-Known Member

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    They will be in a worse position if they maintain the status quo. More and more frequently being held hostage by private industry (Gas & Gas Power Stations).

    Biggest issue for SA is ots a small market now dominated by only a few players with not a great supply/demand balance.

    They need to get some storage, which will allow a higher penetration of renewables that will bring prices down (many competing generating sources).

    Ultimately it wasn't a great market to privatise. Its too small and too subject to exploitation.
     
  9. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    Who's complaining - the wholesaler, retailer or the government?
     
  10. bumskins

    bumskins Well-Known Member

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    Well it was a bit of an own goal by the Government that sold off the network/generation. To be competitive SA really needs to be more competitive on virtually every measure (wages, power, real estate, etc.) to overcome its shortcomings.
    It should have allowed private industry in to compete for work but not given them ownership/control.
     
  11. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Perth and SA have highest unemployment in the country.
     
  12. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    but its also very much dependent on what is happening in each State and their economy

    When Perth had mining we had the highest immigration in the country and we had plenty of jobs, now Melbourne has the highest immigration in the country and we don't have any jobs:(
     
  13. bob shovel

    bob shovel Well-Known Member

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    But perth isn't a mining town:cool:
     
  14. 380

    380 Well-Known Member

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    I expect we will see a softening of property markets in 2017.
     
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  15. 380

    380 Well-Known Member

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    We now know Feds have raised interest rates, which will impact on Au$
     
  16. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    oops, clearly mining boom is over red rover
     
  17. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    It is a town still isn't it? @Westminster - The last person hasn't left just yet.
     
  18. bob shovel

    bob shovel Well-Known Member

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    I hope so cause i forgot to turn the lights off:oops:
     
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  19. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    That's ok 'cause @ellejay is still further north and can turn them off if the lap is too boring.
     
  20. ellejay

    ellejay Well-Known Member

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    I'll turn the lights off and close the door on my way out.