18 reasons why property prices will fall further

Exactly my thoughts on these markets atm.

Some tremendous opportunities coming over the next 18 months. The kind that as you say, if you're cashed up and in a position to buy , will really be the next impetus for a chunk of wealth to be realised over the next cycle .

 

For sure there will be a bit of overshot, but Syd/Mel are growing at an insane rate, 1M every 7 years (long term + additional students) thanks to mass immigration, they are still safe bets.

 

Long term I'm definetly bullish on both cities mate .

 

As long as it s not to live there ;-) they are on their way to become mostly ********s, they used to be great 20 years ago.

 

I love where I live mate. 2 mins from a plethora of beach choices, streams of chic and hip cafes and 20 choices of locations for my smashed avo on toast. Not to mention the human traffic passing by is kind on the eye . Yeah I can't complain too much .

 

Sweeping generalisation makes no sense. There are both horrible and beautiful areas to live in Melb & Syd. It comes down to $ though.

 

For all those pointing out that construction of new stock grinding to a hallt will be a tailwind, yes in the longer term, but don't forget it means that a few hundred thousand people currently employed in the construction industry will be out of work by the end of the year. This rising unemployment is a big headwind in the short term, and can have longer and more significant knock on effects than you might think.

 

The way it works is most go from the large construction sites back into small block developments ,every where you look in inner Brisbane is in that phase now ..
I go for a 5 klms walk every morning in the dark and every street is the same new builds or vacant blocks waiting to sell with DA in place ..if you listen to the media drama queens and kings or any drama person who will still be using the same headline in ten years time to look important in their mirror you would never invest in anything..

 

It's all about time frames, what will they be worth in 20yrs from now.

 

Extremely well said @John_BridgeToBricks

 

Sydney East & North are still nice (protected by pollies & $$$), the rest is quickly turning to ****, I cannot imagine how this city will be in 15 years time with 2M more people crammed (They will have to implement a hell of water restriction too)

 

I agree, but there are a lot of infrastructure projects that are in train but not completed. So we are in the middle of a big Sydney transformation that we can't quite see the benefit of. Rolling out infrastructure is like a negotiation: there is clarity at the beginning and the end, but the middle is just friction. That's where we are now.

In particular, and of relevance to my business, the Sydney Metro is the biggest infrastructure project in Australia. It really is huge.

So if we fast forward to say 2025 when many of these projects are finished, and people in the middle ring suburbs can move around better, I can see Sydney start to actually attract interstate migration again.

This is such a good time to be buying Sydney real estate for the long term. Just awash with opportunities right now.

 

Sydney dam is at near full capacity and we have an unused declination plant that can go on any time.

Further I would appreciate you refraining calling MY CITY a **** hole.

 

57.8 % Friday 1 March

At 3 times the normal price

 

With almost 1M more users by then

yeah i agree

 

its kinda simple,

if your positive about australia or just sydney or melbourne, buy / stay put / dont sell .

if your negative, about sydney / australia/ melbourne, sell & move away/ invest somewhere else

australia is kinda kewl like that because there is this thing called.

Freedom

this is a forum everyone is welcome to share your views, thats the whole point of a forum. no need to snipe people.

 

and it can get even better by mid 2020

 

Most likely, in my view a portfolio must have at least one property at Sydney/Melb (ideally not a dog box, ideally both)

 

Thanks TheSackedWiggle,

I know we are not going to agree on this, but I see the bottom this year, not next year.

1) For all of the statistics around credit that appear on this blog, there is no way that the regulators and/or the RBA don't act jump in, sooner than later. Credit is at 1980's levels! Even Westpac is predicting 2 cuts this year, and we don't know what APRA will do.

So assuming that we bumble along and go further into the doldrums suggests complete inertia on the part of authorities, and this won't happen.

2) 2020 means a three-year price correction, and I just don't think the bull market was big enough to warrant a 3 year correction. We already see the price corrections losing velocity, which is what a "bottoming formation" looks like.

If we step back, property in Sydney did nothing from 2003-2013. Then a pop from 2012/13 to 2017. Given the context of the "lost decade" that preceded the boom (which was really a catch up to the other major capitals), I just don't think Sydney was as grotesquely over valued as many pundits believe.

So yep, it bottoms this year not next IMHO.

 

Most of South Sydney foreshore/bays is environmental Zoning making development hard. So nice water ways will remain. Although the density is South is would be 1/3 of the eastern suburbs but you know this.

This issue is Australia is a Democracy so no one forces one to live where they dont want to. Or invest in an area that is not to their liking or meeting their risk profile.


My point is Sydney has a Declination plant and cant technically run out of water. Its an insurance policy. If some other cities without one run out of water they need to truck in. We flick the switch.