12 months from now

Yes, on morning TV last week, when he announce that the Crossroads outbreak was indeed spread from Vic !
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...FjABegQIBhAB&usg=AOvVaw2wyTTs2Id57cPMkt5IFOzl
But now that it is circulating in humans, scientists say the coronavirus is mutating at a fairly “stable” rate – about 20 mutations a year,

 

Well said. This is where I am with two more points - an adequate cash reserve and good cashflow. The cash reserve goal is six months of spending, with cashflow such that this does not get much below that.

There was a report today that Sydney has vacancies.
The Sydney suburbs with the highest rise in rental vacancy rates
I don't usually make predictions - I'm usually wrong. How many saw the GFC or the pandemic? That said, it's hard to see any recovery in the medium term, 2-5 years. The Australian economy is very parlous, and Trump has wrecked America, which some are now saying is a failed state.

Mid-range property should be best. Lower value property attracts those on lower incomes, and except for people on government pensions it will be hard. High-value property may be okay if the rich can still afford it. Mid-range for people with a secure job appeals.

I'm doing what i have done for ages - waiting, not doing much. I don't need to buy or sell anything, except perhaps share rights issues or the like.

 

Yeah ok - this explains a lot in my opinion

 

Rents tumble as listings pile up

"ANZ economist Felicity Emmett said the inner city markets of Sydney and Melbourne have been the most heavily impacted due to their "service economies" as people working in industries hardest hit by COVID-19 were also most likely to rent."

"There's been a disproportionate loss of income in the hospitality and tourism sectors and workers in these industries are more likely to be renting in those inner city markets" Ms Emmett said."

 

This got me wondering
In 12 months from now will we have a vaccine........

It could end up in a similar scenario to the common cold, where the vaccine is based on a recent strain and isn't always effective due to the strain mutations

So will we have a vaccine in 12 months, yes I hope so
Will it be 100% effective, unlikely

 

You could potentially develop vaccines for common cold but there isn't a need like this.

The virus will mutate but it's unlikely to significantly mutate the important regions it uses to infect cells and these are the targets. Once the pressure of immunity in its host population rises I'm sure the virus mutants will rise and eventually it will come back like the flu does every year. However, this is an important infection, it seems 5-10 times more deadly than the flu and look how big business that is. Several vaccines are made for the flu a year, same will be for COVID if not more. I think there's been almost 20 made already.

 

I see marginal falls in quality stock and a very soft market for the next 3-5 years. In real terms real estate probably won’t beat inflation during this period. Hold and play the long game.

unless you own an apartment in the Sydney or Melbourne cbd. In which case GTFO

 

Imagine the BOOM 18-20 years from now
Due to Covid lockdown there is various conversations about a "baby boom" (along with an increase in divorse/family violence ).
All of the above will result in the need for more housing
So I expect you are right @djyella that in the short term things are grim (with the lack of immigration), but time it right in 15 years odd from now and $$$$s to be made
@MTR always say's property is a long game

 

I expect a boom in Mt Druitt satellite suburbs eg Bidwill.

In fact I expect the first million dollar property out there (ex houso 3 bedda on 560 sqm block)

It just makes sense to happen. Sorta like when the Rabbitohs finally won the grand final. It was bound to happen. So on that basis it will happen out Druitt way. Rock solid evidence there.

 

Yep, I think remote/online working environments is going to really have an impact.... with businesses allowing more and more people to work from home it will move towards becoming possibly the new normal. Meaning living close to cities (containing office buildings) become less of a necessity.

 

Is there any info/evidence to suggest a baby boom due to impact on Corona Virus?

 

Hasn’t been 9 months yet

 

I would say the opposite of a baby boom would happen. Look at Japan for example they have a declining population thought to be because people in their 20's and 30's are too worried about their financial situation to start a family.

 

Why does that matter? We just import our population.

 

Increasing immigration isn't a baby boom.

 

Personally I think things will start improving in q1 next year as we are likely to have some type of vaccine or people accept to live with the virus as they seem to be doing in the US.

It will obviously take a while for things to improve but when borders open up and international students start coming back and migration restarts housing market could improve very quickly

 

But when will the boarders open up?
or international students return?
or migration allowed again?

Not any time soon - definitely not q1 next year