ASX Shares 10 bagger

Discussion in 'Shares & Funds' started by kum yin lau, 5th Mar, 2019.

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  1. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member

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    RAC - Explanation of FTO and Melanoma

     
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  2. Monopoly Man in Top Hat

    Monopoly Man in Top Hat Well-Known Member

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    Anyone tempted to buy into Monash IVF?
     
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  3. Anthony416

    Anthony416 Well-Known Member

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    This RAC is driving me nuts, recently, nearly every time they release good news (my interpretation) the share price drops.............regular as clockwork.
     
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  4. Baker

    Baker Well-Known Member

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    well if you know exactly what’s going to happen to the share price ahead of time, HOW IS THIS A PROBLEM!?!? Invert your methods- sell the rumor and buy the fact. :D
     
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  5. Baker

    Baker Well-Known Member

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    But more seriously, what you say is why I sold out of RAC a while back. I'll come back when there is a better relationship with drug development and price performance. Happy to miss the start of the run... if there's a run.
     
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  6. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member

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    Yes. Frustrating given the significance of recent news on Melanoma and the importance of US patents.

    Needs volume. Might take update on the Israel trial ( likely Q1 22 by my calculations ) or news for their Australian trials to get the SP moving.

    Grumpy/moody sharemarkets not helping.
     
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  7. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member

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  8. Baker

    Baker Well-Known Member

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  9. Millie

    Millie Well-Known Member

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  10. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member

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    Background / timeline:
    • 1980s/90s promising drug was developed but due to corporate breakup the drug was "lost"
    • 2010s - drug was found, new patents / commercial protections established and went into an IPO on the ASX (2016)
    • by mid 2019 - problems with the strategy and the execution and the share price collapsed
    • Mid 2019 - Dr Tillett went A-Z through Biotech tickers on the ASX and identified that Bisantrene has a lot of promise (he has a background in cancer research and owns a DNA sequencing firm)
    • Mid 2019 to end 2020 - management refresh beats the company into shape for getting this drug onto a path of proof of concept trials to demonstrate value to Big Pharma ( they are the most experienced to take the drug to FDA approval )
      • RACE strategy is to achieve a partnership and/or buyout transaction
    • June 2020 - promising trial results in a rare form of Leukaemia
    • June 2020 - coincidentally cancer researchers in US identified the drug as a potent killer of cancer (see links 1 & 2 below)
    1. Two new, powerful small molecules may be able to kill cancers that other therapies can’t
    2. Targeting FTO Suppresses Cancer Stem Cell Maintenance and Immune Evasion

    (Prof Chen one of the authors of the above is now on RACE's Scientific Advisory board )

    There's strong evidence (preclinical) that Zantrene makes the checkpoint inhibitors work better for certain types of cancer as well as Zantrene being able to be used as a single agent for some sub-types of cancer ( e.g. subtypes of Melanoma, AML ) as well as being used in combination therapy.

    Read this on the history of Keytruda

    The Startling History Behind Merck's New Cancer Blockbuster

    Read this on checkpoint inhibitors ( the class of drugs that Keytruda falls into and the class of drugs that Zantrene could make work better )

    Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors
     
    Last edited: 7th Oct, 2021
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  11. Frosty123

    Frosty123 Well-Known Member

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    Sure hope NVA have some great news following this trading halt.
     
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  12. David_SYD

    David_SYD Well-Known Member

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    The SP hasn’t really done anything for 10 months? I saw somebody post something (I think maybe @wombat777 ) suggesting it would be at $20/ share by now? Was that SP valuation based on the anticipation of achieving something specific and that hasn’t happened yet or won’t happen?
     
  13. David_SYD

    David_SYD Well-Known Member

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    Announcement said “significant drilling results”. Good luck!
     
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  14. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member

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    One of my peer comparisons was against Synthorx. That indicated a preclinical or early Phase 1 buyout could be at $20. Just a comparator for a potential future transaction.

    10 bagger [ASX Shares]

    Another post based on the long-term trend speculated on $12+ by end of this year but the sideways grind makes that unlikely now.

    The news flow is great, every announcement is further de-risking of what they are doing but unfortunately excessive selling by one or perhaps a couple of large holders is preventing the price getting traction with the great newsflow.

    The large holders need to change their approach to selling (perhaps smaller parcels more evenly spread across more trading days).

    Of the 29M legacy management shares/securities that were on the register by my calculations 30% are left ( just under 9M shares ). Once that 9M shares is sold the price should start moving again ( that could take a while ).

    I think another factor is bots / algos driving trading of the stock for cashflow or accumulating.

    Whilst the sideways grind is annoying, there seems to be strong share price support at $3.00 to $3.20 range which could be useful for anyone accumulating.
     
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  15. Baker

    Baker Well-Known Member

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    Cheers @wombat777 , but what - as a noob - I don't understand is why the management with large shareholdings would want to unload so much stock? If things look so promising, surely it's in their interest to hold?
     
  16. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member

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    See timeline above. Basically prior management had a great drug with a promising history but a terrible strategy. Everyone involved with the development and implementation of the clinical strategy from point of IPO has gone (could be read as shown the door or various emotions associated with being involved with the failed strategy). What they did do well was establish the US patent protections and FDA commercial protections. The clinical strategy execution was the main problem though.

    The only former management still remaining is Dr C. He was bought in for his deal-experience in April 2018. Have a careful look at his Bio and look into the company Torreya. This is quite important due to his experience and the focus of the company to achieve a buyout or partnership ( they won't try to independently pursue approval ).

    The rerating of the stock started with a new strategy forming in late 2019 and then "FTO" changed the game in 2020. Strategy was further reworked to make the drug potential as an FTO inhibitor the focus.

    It was almost or maybe by luck there was an investigator-led trial in Israel that started in 2019 and finished in June 2020 that proved the drug still works. There were surprise results in the trial (the included extremely difficult to treat patients) that later insights about independent research on the drug shows the drug has amazing potential as a Precision Oncology drug ( this was the City of Hope Study published mid 2020).

    The seller creates an accumulation opportunity in this current price range. That will end when newsflow drives enough volume, Dr G decides to stop selling or he sells all his stock. RAC are starting to ramp up their marketing strategy and at some point US-based investors will become aware of the drug and it's unique potential ( do some research on Keytruda revenues - Zantrene could be as big ). Recently RAC have been trying to stay below the radar as they want more of their own data available before the US industry becomes aware of what they have.

    This is my research on stock that was offloaded through the last 18 months. Only about 30% of the legacy holdings left.

    Screen Shot 2021-10-09 at 8.23.58 pm.png

    RAC are also publishing distribution data in quarterlies. This is my analysis of that data. It's a sign a lot of stock is being accumulated and held.

    Screen Shot 2021-10-09 at 8.26.44 pm.png
    Screen Shot 2021-10-09 at 8.29.08 pm.png
     
    Last edited: 9th Oct, 2021
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  17. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member

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    I should add - in addition to establishing the US patent family and other commercial protections, the original management successfully reformulated the drug and set up a new manufacturing process that eliminated historic issues with some cases of anaphylaxis in 1980s/90s ( 70 doses of the new formulation were given in the Israel trial in 2019/20 ... with no anaphlaxis ).

    The historic issues with the formulation was that the historic manufacturing wasn't very pure. The new formulation and manufacturing process fixes the purity.
     
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  18. Baker

    Baker Well-Known Member

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    @wombat777 Your level of DD, analysis and understanding* in this area is staggering. You've convinced me this will be the penicillin of cancer, no doubt. All the research looks amazingly good. It's incredible. My mother died of cancer and my father will, so I'm in the gunsights of the big C. I'm cheering for RAC whole heartedly.

    But you don't answer my question (if you can): if you'd been holding 15 million shares + options in RAC, were a company director & know the potential, would you be a seller?



    *I am of course assuming you are not part of the Amplicat enterprise, which RAC have dealings with and are paid to pump companies on places like this.
     
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  19. luckyP

    luckyP Well-Known Member

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    He started a new company, bought a mansion and a boot. That's life.
     
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  20. Baker

    Baker Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, fair enough!