ASX Shares 10 bagger

Podcast for RACE Oncology ( RAC )

Health Kick Podcast: Commercialising orphan drugs, the need for better regulation and the ASX's lifestyle play problem - Stockhead

 

https://commsec.api.markitondemand....pdf?access_token=Bcm6ryWKlxHEU8VkopLjL0F4OICy

When one looks at the sellers and buyers on the waiting list this one may have that alchemic buzz about it..

 

Just started looking at $EVO

EVO is a child care provider with centers in NZ and and recent acquisitions in Australia (14 more planned for 2020). They have been bumbling along for a number of years but recently have made some big changes that should bare fruit.
New director - Chris Scott who took G8 eduction to being the biggest ECE company in Aus. Since he came in last month he has
1. Increased fees
2. Removed discounting
3. Fired the entire board and replaced them with competent fellas who all have bought into the company
4. Streamlined head office which has delivered expected 3.4mil savings each year.
5. Increased occupany of kids in centres.
Chris scott took GEM from 10c to $6 in 3yrs before he stepped down. He has put 100mil of his own money into EVO and got hinself elected director. This is his second crack at this industry so you would assume he has good experience. But who knows. Im taking a small punt on it. DYOR

 

Do you know why they have had such a large drop in earnings and share price recently?

 

How did u find all this info?

 

Hey Mate. All info was found in the company announcements, other forums and the company website. As i said i have only started looking at this company and was hoping others would have an opinion. Cheers FC

 

At a quick glance, capital heavy, depreciation heavy, revenue light, relies mostly on government funding that may be reduced. Properties leased so have maintenence cost but don't get the benefit of CG but could have to pay increasing lease fees . Paying a dividend while loosing money ?? I understand GEM's growth was bought it wasn't organic or sustainable.. I don't see how EVO can 10 bag. I think there are better places to put your money but I only had a quick cursory look

 

Is anyone still holding or buying NEA at the moment? it looks like a buy from what I can see after it pulled back from $4 as the US and further expansion still looks on track

 

I still think its a good long term buy. I think in 5 years it will be substantially higher then $3 @geoffw . Obviously depends on your time horizon.

 

ADN ... I think 5-bagger+ potential from the 5-6c level.

Quite unique thing with them is the project has a pre-tax IRR of 174%. That means very low startup CAPEX ( unusual for a mining stock ). That means fast payback and they can then focus on growing. That's on the basis of their original Scoping Study released in September.

Since then they have increased the size of the resource and have been working on Feasibility Study.

Summary of first video below

• South Australia - Halloysite-Kaolin Project
• Biggest resource in the world ( moat due to the combination of size / purity )
• Used in mature markets (ceramics), high-quality porcelain and catalysts for cracking petro-chemical
• 92% pure halloysite at some prospects to suit new high-tech applications ( 70 or 80 patents released last year, things like energy storage / batteries, super-capacitors, water purification, carbon capture, hydrogen storage, agriculture )
• Halloysite as a pure material sells for approx AUD $5,000/t
• Have a JORC resource ( over 20 mt )

For 2020:

• Finishing PFS March / April ( upgrade to scoping study )
• Moving towards wet-process on site ( improves recoveries and economics )
• Working on environmental study
• Land access negotiations
• Pushing through to mineral lease application

For 2021

• Operations early to mid 2021

(must say that James Marsh is one of the best MDs among ASX micro-caps, decades of experience technically, incredible professionalism - make contact and speak to him)



Also watch this earlier video

 

How are they going with competitors i.e

Home - Aerometrex

 

Got 3 one baggers just to-day with BTH up 25% to-day, RUL up 19%, RHT 4%. MP1 has bagged 2x, ALC 3X, SKO 1.4x, this year XRO has bagged twice since nov and 4x this year and 7x since buying Got 13 bags in the last year just not with an individual company It is best with diversity anyway, A2M has bagged 6 and and 4X since Alex said to sell it 2 years ago.. A whole bunch are up 30% since Kitdr said it was too late to buy, in august. APT is up 50% since kit Dr said it is too late, made 50% on the SPP in just one day with the opportunity to buy the $35.00 share for $23. which is another bag to-day, because I only paid $12 for the shares that gave me the rights. so you could say that is 4 bags in one day.

 

APT is heading to a 1-bagger for me. Bought in late. Will take profits and free-carry when I 1-bag it. Holding in my super.

 

MSB is one i bought into about a few weeks ago ---xxx 20,000---.entry $1--90 range and from my small networks of friends in the stand alone equities world all seem to think this one has all the gas in the tanks .''''I M H O'''.. 3 bucks is set to sell and walk away that may well happen within the next 48 hours if not then it can sit in the exit waiting room...

 

It's ok - stage 1 is around a $140m NPV on my numbers. That too low for current market cap, so real upside is in stage 2 processing when they don't do DSO. Was shown this during the back door listing.

 

Their 75% share of pre-tax NPV is $309M ( 30 September 2019 Scoping Study @ $413M NPV, pre-tax 100% basis ). IRR is 174%.

They aren't selling DSO. The product under the current scoping study is A$700/t, initially toll-processed (refined) overseas. Has a margin $304 per tonne. After first cashflows they will build their own plant on site. To start selling product they essentially have a quarry and send the ore overseas for toll refining to a $700/t product.

Recent resource upgrade (late December) will extend mine life. Yield and operating costs are also expected to come down in the Feasibility Study (due approximately April). Additional upside will come when they start producing pure Halloysite.

If you saw numbers during the backdoor listing, that would have been Q1 2018, perhaps before they head-hunted their current MD.

 

I ran my own model on it that’s where the numbers came from. Not sure who the current MD is, but i met the guy who was doing the kaolin deposit not the SA gold deposits.