The next move in rates (whenever it comes) 2024 edition

Here in Adelaide be like:

 

July 2025? A lot could happen before then...

 

"higher for longer" should be the new slogan. Sydney prospective buyers can patiently wait to buy. no rush.

 

unfortunately the intake of immigration was not patient...........it was rushed

 

For those who waited in 2023 because interest rates are rising….. sydney houses went up 10+%.

 

Yep it’s also just one data print, a bad one. But there’s like another 20 big ones before July 2025!

 

Hmmm . . .

Good Job, ALBO!

 

This is the Gut-Kicker among non-homeowners:

Good Job, ALBO!

 

I can't keep up with how quickly rents are rising. I recievef a call yesterday from my PM informing me of a tennant breaking lease. I thought I was playing hardball and demanded "I won't be accepting anything under X amount a week from the next tennants". There was a couple of seconds silence from the PM who then replied "that's about $60 a week under current market price".

 

same with me

had a tenant break lease and then was told I could get another 60 a week.

 

yes but they also dropped 15% the year prior didn’t they?

Houses are just where they should be on an annualized basis for avg growth no? Or have I got that wrong

 

i rate warren hogan so this is a bit shocking

Interest rates: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hike cash rate to 5.1pc, says top forecaster Judo Bank economist Warren Hogan (afr.com)

though in saying that ALOT would need to go wrong over the coming months for the RBA to consider going that high. BUT not impossible - close eye needed.

 

My theory is that @Piston_Broke is actually Warren Hogan.

 

More than likely the Government/Central Banks love high rates of inflation, and have just been gaslighting the public.

Chalmers and Albo just can't stop spending and throwing out welfare to deal with higher inflation and on the cycle go's.

 

yes, but if those that waited didn't buy when it dropped 15%, they've wasted the opportunity.

 

I suspect this is not all next meeting! He is probably referring to a 24 month outlook.

We have a budget and the stage 2 Tax cuts that will be inflationary. This is already on the highest inflation rate in the world that is now rising.

They say the RBA is like a 'roo in the headlights'.

I see the RBA sitting for this year, and then playing catch up next year as things get out of hand.

It is quite possible we will need three hikes in 2025 - one in Qtr 2, 3 & 4 to get things back on track. Then no rate cuts until 2027 as this takes effect.

 

I'm not overall concerned yet. I think people are no jittery that as soon as we see any negative news about CPI we all just freak out. Especially the media.

CPI has gone up over 3 months, but it is still down annually to 3.6.

The items that did go up in the first 3 months seem to be front ended raises and will peter out as go through 2024. I'm not sure the tax cuts will be that inflationary, by then everyone will be back to variable loans and we currently have grocery prices dropping.

Retail is in dire straits and tax cuts won't bring it back to booming IMO. GDP generally is also low.

ALSO next year is an election year. Cannot discount that.

 

one is way less accurate.

More akin to a broken clock

 

I mean yea that's true.

I suppose i was just making the point that housing hasn't had some type of massive leap. it's just where it should have been had COVID not occurred based on normalized growth.

 

yeah, but i think the original point was that, those that held off buying due to interest rates and the doomsayers predicting further crash/stagnation due to the mortgage cliff, missed out on this 15% growth.